Lake Tahoe Weather Forecast-November 5, 2009

Howdy!

I have been very lax about updating the Lake Tahoe weather post but now that we are deep into Autumn and everyone in town is looking up and waiting for those snowflakes to fall I decided I better get back on that horse!

What appeared to be an early Lake Tahoe winter developing in October with record precipitation and some very strong storms has turned into a very warm and dry Indian Summer pattern. Looking down the road it appears the pattern is changing into a somewhat more favorable scenario to get some storms into the Tahoe basin. But it also looks like we might only get brush by precipitation which is not what we need but a major snowstrom or two. Receiving a good storm before Thanksgiving allows the major snow resorts to get up and running and gives a huge boost to the local economies.

I have been down this early season “where is the snow?” road before so I can say with confidence that is way, way too early to freak out yet but some snow dances and pray for snow parties are not a bad idea at this point either.

The long range models still indicate an above average year for snow and that El Nino is still there and developing, Looking at other El Nino years keep in mind that many of those years were very wet and a bulk of the precipitation came later in the year and not earlier. I still think that January, February and March will be very wet if not epic so hang in there Lake Tahoe. It will snow.

UPDATE: Looking at the long range Lake Tahoe weather models it appears there may be a big change which may bring some serious storms into Lake Tahoe and the High Sierra during the November 15-24 period. This is a long way out but it does look better and some of the commercial long range weather companies are pointing to this wetter period as well.

Stay Tuned!

(Burn some ski’s and Boards)

Related articles by Zemanta

• Storm Dumps Snow on Mammoth Mountain, Will Ski Season Open Early? (laist.com)

Lake Tahoe Long Range Winter Forecast-El Nino Backing Off?

Starting this post has taken some time for me as I have been waiting for over two months to see the latest El Nino numbers. Today it appears that the El Nino that was predicted to become at least a moderate to strong event may in fact not happen at all or be very weak for the entire winter. This does not always mean a non-wet winter and actually the odds for a wetter than normal winter are still in full force. With a La Nina event the driest winters tend to be in store and this is not a La Nina year. In a past post I made mention of the fact that some of the biggest snow years have actually occurred during this exact scenario 1951-2 and 1968-69 being the most recently famous.

My predictions will center on the fact that strong El Nino’s typically bring our precipitation late i.e February through April and that weal El Nino events typically give our winter an early start that then fizzles later in the spring. I think that (with 5 inches of snow on my back deck as I write this) that the winter will be early with good hard storms hitting the Sierra by the middle of November allowing the major Ski and Board resorts to get up and running full tilt by Thanksgiving. The weather should be wet through the Holidays and into late January with major storms battering the Lake Tahoe region until early February. After that all bets are off and I think it will be a warm and dry late winter and early spring. Hope not but that is my thinking.

Here is a list of the biggest Sierra winters and the correlation between El Nino events:

El Niño Winter

2006-2007 / 365 inches
2004-2005 / 562 inches
2002-2003 / 375 inches
1997-1998 / 531 inches
1994 / 661 inches
1993 / 500 inches
1991-1992 / 205 inches
1986-1987 / 212 inches
1982-1983 / 600 inches

Non-El Niño Winter

2008-2009 / 480 inches
2007-2008 / 420 inches
2005-2006 / 650 inches
1995-1996 / 420 inches
1988-1989 / 400 inches

Below is a simple example of the difference between El Nino winter and La Nina winters.

Please read my North Lake Tahoe weather watchers article on his ideas on the similarities of this upcoming winter an the winter of 1951-52

Here is another article on the upcoming winter and predictions

Both of these article argue for an above normal winter with one writer comparing the weak El Nino and some other factors that mirror the epic winter of 1951-52 where all single level and many two stroy homes were literally buried at Lake Tahoe! Maybe that would be too much of a good thing.

Stay Tuned!

Related articles by Zemanta

• El Nino’s Return — Climatologists, Oceanographers Track Climate-changing Ocean Pattern (fusionsci-tech.blogspot.com)
• Connections among solar cycle, stratosphere and ocean discovered (scienceblog.com)
• Sun stays as summer goes (theolympian.com)
• El Nino weather system to return (telegraph.co.uk)
• El Nino Returns (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
• Should you take a chance on a season ski pass this winter? (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
• Weather Service expects drier Northwest winter (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

Lake Tahoe Weather-El Nino Winter?

The squirrels have gone absolutely crazy eating and actually cutting pine cones from the trees in preparation for a HUGE South Lake Tahoe  winter? Only time will tell but there are actual scientific indications for a big winter namely our old friend “El Nino” The El Nino is expected to strengthen later this fall and become a full fledged El Nino by mid winter.

El Nino does not always foretell a big winter but in a majority of cases winter of note are associated with an El Nino event.

Noteable El Nino winter from the past have been 1982-83; 1968-69; 2004-05; 1997-98. It is worth noting that the BIG winter of 1951-52 was not an strong El Nino but there have been some comparisons to that epic winter and how this El Nino is beginning and is forecast to locate itself. Maybe I need to bring in more firewood and get the hurricane lamps ready!

I have been trying to do further historic research an winter such as 1846-47 which of course was the winter the Donner Party was trapped in the Sierra’s and endured incredible hardships. That winter the snow was estimated at Donner lake to be over 22 feet deep! The estimates at Donner Summit were over 40 feet! Was that an El Nino year? I am checking.

Here are some recent articles relating to the upcoming El Nino event:

• El Nino could forecast disaster for Olympics (canada.com)
• El Nino’s back, can affect weather worldwide: experts (ctv.ca)
• New El Nino increases drought threat (telegraph.co.uk)
• El Nino should bring mild winter: expert (nationalpost.com)
• Should you take a chance on a season ski pass this winter? (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
• Why Does the Tale of the Donner Party Continue to Fascinate? (francesdinkelspiel.blogspot.com)
• The Donner party in proper context (boston.com)

Wild Lake Tahoe Weather Continues….Epic Winter to Follow?

The rain just keeps on coming. Lake Tahoe Weather.Now it is the talk of the really local locals who usually poo poo anything weather wise with a comment like….’back in 59 we had etc etc” But now even the old timers are looking up in the sky and wondering what the heck is going on! Since Memorial day weekend there has been rain almost everyday with June precipitation totals nearing all time records in the Reno area. See below

The recent moist and unstable pattern over western Nevada has
produced one of the wettest Junes on record in Reno. Another
series of showers brought rain to the Reno Airport Saturday
pushing the monthly total further up the list of wettest Junes on
record. The next good chance for rainfall in Reno will be Monday
night and Tuesday.

Below is a list of the top ten wettest Junes for Reno.

1920 1.94
1989 1.53
2009 1.45  total as June 14th
1932 1.40
1998 1.39
1938 1.31
1965 1.31
1969 1.29
1995 1.29
1892 1.27

Since May 30th the Reno Airport has received 1.83 inches of rain.

If you look close at those years many of them were huge snow total years especially 1969, 1995, 1998

Lake Tahoe Weather-Wild Thunderstorms, Flash Floods and Rain!

This has been an amazing week for weather at South Lake Tahoe! As a 30 year local of the Tahoe basin this may be the longest period of Thunderstorm activity that I can remember. This kind of activity usually occurs later in the summer during the southwerst’s Monsoon season and even then the Lake Tahoe region rarely sees days let alone weeks of thunderstrom acitvity. That being said the upside to all of thie moisture are numerous”

1) The fire season has been postponed even with all of the lightning-too wet as of now
2) The spring runoff has been enhanced by the extra precipitation
3) Fabulous gardening season will follow
4) The wildflowers in the high country will be outrageous and could start early and last very late
5) I like the rain….speaking as an Oregon Duck alumnus!

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