I have been very lax about updating the Lake Tahoe weather post but now that we are deep into Autumn and everyone in town is looking up and waiting for those snowflakes to fall I decided I better get back on that horse!
What appeared to be an early Lake Tahoe winter developing in October with record precipitation and some very strong storms has turned into a very warm and dry Indian Summer pattern. Looking down the road it appears the pattern is changing into a somewhat more favorable scenario to get some storms into the Tahoe basin. But it also looks like we might only get brush by precipitation which is not what we need but a major snowstrom or two. Receiving a good storm before Thanksgiving allows the major snow resorts to get up and running and gives a huge boost to the local economies.
I have been down this early season “where is the snow?” road before so I can say with confidence that is way, way too early to freak out yet but some snow dances and pray for snow parties are not a bad idea at this point either.
The long range models still indicate an above average year for snow and that El Nino is still there and developing, Looking at other El Nino years keep in mind that many of those years were very wet and a bulk of the precipitation came later in the year and not earlier. I still think that January, February and March will be very wet if not epic so hang in there Lake Tahoe. It will snow.
UPDATE: Looking at the long range Lake Tahoe weather models it appears there may be a big change which may bring some serious storms into Lake Tahoe and the High Sierra during the November 15-24 period. This is a long way out but it does look better and some of the commercial long range weather companies are pointing to this wetter period as well.
(Burn some ski’s and Boards)