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Home > Lake Tahoe Weather-September 19, 2013

Lake Tahoe Weather-September 19, 2013

September 19, 2013 by staff Leave a Comment


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National Weather Service Reno Nevada 
307 am PDT Thursday Sep 19 2013 

Synopsis... 

Light southeast winds and warmer conditions expected today and 
another night of below freezing morning lows is possible in the 
Sierra valleys tonight. A strong low pressure system will move 
into the Pacific northwest Friday and Saturday, bringing gusty 
winds, below normal temperatures, and a few showers to the area. 

Short term... 
clear skies will prevail across much of the western U.S. As short 
wave ridging briefly passes through the region. Expecting warmer 
temperatures this afternoon as winds shift out of the southeast with 
highs today right around season averages. Lower 80s are forecast 
across much of western Nevada with middle 70s for Sierra valleys. 
Thereafter, we will see a Stark regime change as an unseasonably 
potent low pressure system develops off the West Coast. The main 
weather impacts this low will provide are strong winds beginning 
Friday afternoon and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees colder by 
Saturday. 

The core of an unseasonably deep upper low (3-4 Standard deviations) 
will remain offshore of the Pacific northwest on Friday morning, but 
will begin to send a 100+ knot jet segment across northern 
California. Winds will begin to strengthen across the ridges through 
early Friday morning with gusts reaching around 75 miles per hour across the 
Sierra crest by the afternoon. Gusty winds will also materialize 
across the foothills and valleys on Friday as a strong surface 
pressure/thermal gradient and weak downslope signature help mix 
down winds aloft during the day. Looking like we could see 
widespread gusts in the 40-45 miles per hour range across Sierra valleys and 
into Lee side valleys in western Nevada with locally higher values 
in the typical wind prone areas. These winds may pose hazards to 
motorists in high profile vehicles especially along the Highway 
395/i580 corridor and also for any individuals on area lakes where 
dangerous boating conditions are anticipated. Critical fire 
weather conditions are also expected and a Fire Weather Watch 
remains in place. See the fire weather section for additional 
details. 

The peak winds will occur into into Friday night as the peak 700mb 
flow (around 50-55kts) crosses the Sierra. This jet also Marks the 
arrival of the strong cold front that will sweep through NE 
California and northwest Nevada on Saturday where winds will remain gusty. 
Temperatures will drop considerably with some areas remaining only 
in the upper 60s across western Nevada and 50s in the Sierra. Do 
expect rain showers along and behind the front with upwards of a 
third to a half inch of rainfall possible across the wettest 
locations mainly near the crest and through Plumas and western 
Lassen counties. Valley areas in western Nevada will largely be 
shadowed out but could see a few hundredths to up to a tenth of 
inch in isolated areas within shower activity as instability 
increases beneath the cold core of the upper low. Snow levels will 
dip into the 8000-8500 foot range behind the front so some snow 
showers will be possible in High Sierra. Overnight lows on 
Saturday into Sunday morning will dip into the 20s for some Sierra 
Valley locations. Fuentes 

Long term...Sunday through Thursday... 

System for Friday and Saturday will push into the eastern Great 
Basin by Sunday with dry conditions for the start of next week. The 
next system in the fast Pacific flow should reach the West Coast by 
Tuesday night. 

There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the track of this low due 
to rapid amplification of the pattern over the northeast Pacific. 
However do feel confident a trough will push into the Sierra and 
western Nevada and bring at least a low chance of showers, gusty 
winds and decreasing temperatures for middle week. 

Latest model runs are further east with the low dropping from 
British Columbia into northern Nevada Wednesday. With the track a 
bit more overland there is less Pacific moisture for the storm to 
tap into and precipitation amounts are quite a bit less. However 
the cold air is still very apparent with this system for middle week, 
which may push snow levels down to 6000-7000 feet and could limit 
highs to the 50s and low 60s for western Nevada with 40s for the 
Sierra. Overnight lows may approach freezing for the outlying areas 
of Reno-Carson-Douglas with low 20s for the colder Sierra valleys 
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Brong 

Fire weather... 

Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for gusty winds and low 
humidity across the Lake Tahoe basin, eastern Sierra, northeast 
California, northwest Nevada and the Sierra front for Friday. 

Confidence remains high in a low reaching the West Coast Friday with 
a cold front tracking across northern Nevada Saturday. Winds will 
begin to increase Friday morning as the jet noses into northern 
California. Gusts across most locations in the fire watch should 
easily exceed 30 miles per hour with peak gusts reaching 40 miles per hour for Friday 
afternoon. Dry air ahead of the system will allow humidity to 
plummet down to near 10% in the lower elevations and to 15-20% in 
the mountains. 

The highest wind gusts should occur overnight Friday into early 
Saturday morning as the jet core reaches northern California. 
Downslope wind signatures along the Sierra front and northern Mono 
County could lead to peak gusts of 50-60 miles per hour in wind prone areas. 
There will be some overnight recoveries, but probably not enough to 
decrease threat for critical conditions given the potential for 
strong wind gusts. 

Winds will be slow to diminish for Saturday, but increasing humidity 
and potential for wetting rains in the northern Sierra through 
western Lassen County should decrease the fire weather threat for 
Saturday. However stronger winds than Friday may impact zones 453 
and 459 as the front slowly crosses western Nevada with afternoon 
humidity dropping close to 15 percent east of Highway 95. Brong 

Filed Under: Lake Tahoe Weather

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