First Storms of 2011-2012 On The Way?

I know it is only September 27 but looking ahead with the aid of NOAA it appears there will be a major pattern change starting next week and lasting for a couple of weeks. The Pacific is starting to get active and the MJO which can bring storminess to the west coast is starting to juice up. That being said our first Lake Tahoe rain/snow events may begin sooner than later! Stay tuned.

Scientific Forecast Discussion 9/27/2011

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Another La Nina for 2012?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

 

During July 2011, ENSO-neutral was reflected in the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the latest weekly Niño index values were generally near average (Fig. 2), ranging from –0.2^oC (Niño-3.4) to 0.5^oC (Niño-1+2). However, the subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to weaken and is currently near zero, which reflects the strengthening of the below-average temperatures at depth in the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation anomalies were more variable during the past month, but the monthly means still reflect aspects of La Niña. For example, convection continued to be enhanced over eastern Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and generally suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific, mainly south of the equator (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific. Thus, while tropical Pacific oceanic anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral, the atmospheric patterns continue to reflect La Niña-like conditions.

 

The majority of ENSO models, and all multi-model average forecasts (indicated by thicker lines, Fig. 6), indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Niño-3.4 index between –0.5^oC and +0.5^oC). Beyond the early fall, the forecasts are less certain with half of the models persisting ENSO-neutral conditions continuously through early 2012. Along with a few other models, the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) models predict La Niña to re-develop during the fall (Fig. 7). This forecast is also supported by the ongoing La Niña-like tropical atmosphere, subsurface temperature trends, and the historical tendency for significant wintertime La Niña episodes to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes the following winter. Therefore, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

 

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 September 2011. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

What does this mean for Lake Tahoe and the upcoming Fall/Winter? Who really knows as La Nina winters can go either way from very wet to very dry…Lake Tahoe basically sits in the middle of the weather war.

Big Tahoe Snows

Epic snowfall has been occurring the past 7-8 days with a ton more in the forecast. Check out some of these powder shots!

Ten Feet in Tahoe from William Mauney on Vimeo.

Fall Storm-Lake Tahoe Snow?

I am back!

Well things have started to get interesting early this fall with a few autumn-like systems affecting Lake tahoe since late August. Currently we are under our first advisory for snow which may bring as much as 8 inches to elevations above 8,000 fet and some as low as 6,500 feet when all is said and done. After that it looks like we will get a   warm up but the Pacific has become very active for this time of year and after looking at the La Nina signals it appears we will have a strong to very strong La Nina winter which may herald a cold and possibly wet 2010-2011 winter…stay tuned.

Here is the advsory from the National Weather Service

Winter weather advisory in effect until 11 am pdt Tuesday above 8000 feet,
The NWS in Reno has issued a winter weather advisory above 8000 feet for snow, which is in effect until 11 am pdt Tuesday.
Timing: High elevation snow will increase tonight as low pressure moves over the central sierra, especially areas south of highway 50. Periods of snow are likely to continue in the high sierra through Wednesday.
Snow accumulations: 4 to 8 inches of snow above 8000 feet through Tuesday morning.
Snow levels: Snow levels will fall near 8000 feet tonight.
Impacts: Snow will impact travel over mount rose highway, Carson pass, Ebbett’s pass, and Luther pass.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
Snow is expected to pose an inconvenience to travelers. Motorists should slow down and use caution. Check our website at weather.gov/reno or listen to noaa weather radio for updates on this situation.

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Fantastic Mid-Winter Ski and Riding Conditions

Lake Tahoe is having a banner snow year and the conditions for all Lake Tahoe resorts could hardly be better. It is obvious why Orbitz declared once again that the Lake Tahoe region is the top destination for their travelers booking air and lodging packages.  Lodging numbers are up and skier visits have risen quite dramatically as well. The timing of the stormy patters has also helped with periods of stromy weather and then long breaks of Tahoe’s famous sunshine.

Looking ahead there appears to be even more snow on the way with another El Nino driven jet stream making it’s way across the Pacific. These storms may not be as intense as the storms earlier this month but they do appear to be pretty juicy! Stay tuned.

If you are looking for lodging on the South Shore of Lake Tahoe Pinnacle Lake Tahoe Getaways offers over 68 vacation rental homes, cabins and condos ranging from super-luxury to basic economy-2-7 bedrooms with sleeping arrangements ranging from 4 -18 guests. All units are fully equipped for your stay with all linens provided, a start pack of paper products, soaps and shampoos, nicely equipped kitchens and many featuring other amenities such as Hot Tubs, steam showers, Internet and pool tables. Many of Pinnacle Lake Tahoe Getaway’s unit are pet friendly as well so bring Fido along.

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