Lake Tahoe Weather Update 1-2-09
Well we have been super busy with all of our guests enjoying Lake Tahoe the past couple of weeks along with hangin with our families and friends. It has been a record setting holiday period for South Lake Tahoe with huge crowds of revelers, skiers, snow boarders and just general fun lovers. It seems that the national recession has actually helped the Lake Tahoe economy with our guests deciding on shorter, more affordable winter vacations.
The Christmas day storm produced between 2 and 4 feet of fresh snow in the Lake Tahoe Basin and set the Ski and Board resorts up just at the absolute right time! Temperatures prior to Christmas were also very cold which allowed snow-making to happen 24 hours a day. Between the natural snow and the man-made everyone is very happy!
The outlook, however, is sketchy for further significant storms as a high pressure ridging pattern seems to be setting up which could keep the west coast and Lake Tahoe resorts high and dry for the next 10-14 days. Long range models suggest a change may occur at the end of the 15 day model period but that is a long way off and these winter high pressure ridges sometimes last longer than what the models may show. In my 28 years as a Lake Tahoe local however a dry January almost always translates into a wet February so things will probably work out for the best and allow late winter and spring skiing and riding to be fantastic.
If any of you Lake Tahoe locals have Tahoe video, Tahoe photos or even better a Lake Tahoe weather station you would like to share on this blog please let me know and I will load them to our site!
Another Cold Winter Storm For Lake Tahoe
It looks like Lake Tahoe will be in for more winter weather including snow, cold and blizzard conditions starting again tomorrow night (Thursday) and continuing into Friday. 1-2 feet of new, light champagne powder will fall during that time frame. After that storm passes it will be cold, possibly the coldest Lake Tahoe has seen in a few years with temperatures trying to reach 20 degrees for a high and the lows plunging into the sub-zero range.
Once again the great news is most of the Lake Tahoe resorts are open and those that make snow are running their snow guns 24/7. Word on the street has it that Heavenly will be opening both the Nevada and California access points this weekend. I will blog a new post on the current Lake Tahoe Ski and Board conditions after my son Todd gets off the slopes this afternoon. Playing “hookey” Tahoe Style!
Here is the Statement from the National Weather Service
Statement as of 4:32 AM PST on December 17, 2008
… Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday morning…
The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a Winter Storm
Watch… which is in effect from Thursday evening through Friday
morning.
* Potential snow accumulations: one foot at lake level and
western Lassen County… and two feet in higher elevations.
* Winds: southwest 15 to 25 mph gusts to 40 mph. Ridge gusts up to
100 mph.
* Impacts: heavy snow and gusty winds may result in dangerous
travel in the Sierra and much of northeast California Thursday
night and Friday morning.
Http://weather.Gov/Reno
New Lake Tahoe Snow!
Here are some snow shots from yesterday and today!
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| Lake Tahoe Snow 12/08 |
With more storms predicted the Ski and Board resorts should be in full swing for all of the Holidays. If you have not yet booked you Lake Tahoe Vacation Rental call us as we still have a few New Years properties left as well as Christmas. 866-407-0245
My inside informer (neighbor) told me this morning that Heavenly will be opening Stagecoach Thursday and complete California access on Friday. They have been making snow 24/7 for the past 5 days and the entire mountain will be in great shape by the weekend.
The rumor is out the Sierra at Tahoe will try and open on Friday. Stay tuned.
Kirkwood received over 3 feet of new snow and they have been opening new terrain as well including chair 5.
It appears we are in a cold and stormy pattern possibly through the New Year and Christmas looks white!
Here is some recent video in the Comet Park:
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly-Vacation Rental Survival Skills in Uncertain Times
There is no question we are living in unique times and if you own or manage vacation rentals you know the score: Guests 10, Owners 1. It is a “buyers” market and understanding the fundamentals of aggressive marketing, pricing and attitude, yes, attitude is critical to be and stay successful during these incredibly challenging times. There are some bright spots and some silver linings that the savvy manager or homeowner needs to capitalize on to stay ahead not only of the competition but possibly the foreclosure folks.
1) The Good: Gas Prices
With gasoline prices plummeting from record highs over the summer which led to a knashing of teeth for both vacation rental guests and nervous homeowners prices have retreated nearly 60% to a national average of around $2.00 versus mid $4.00 during the height of the summer 2008 season. With prices at these new low levels even cash strapped guests may decide that the cheaper fuel and travel costs will allow them to take that winter vacation that they may have foregone over the summer. We shall see.
2) The Bad: Nightly Booking Rate Deflation
Vacation guest are an educated and savvy bunch. They know what’s going on economically out there and what is going on with their personal finances. They are to a guest looking for the best deal and with a significant increase in vacation rentals having been placed on the market either directly related to cash strapped homeowners looking for a hedge or even desperate homeowners looking to save their second home from foreclosure the vacation rental guest has more option (supply) and with economic conditions deteriorating the number of vacation rental guests has decreased (demand) which is a perfect storm for significantly lower nightly rates across the board. At Lake Tahoe we have seen a phenomenon where the luxury and smaller economy units are languishing on the market whereby the larger “mid-range” homes are being snapped up at a furious pace. It appears that guests are doubling up with 2-3 families using their personal economies of scale to maximize their buying power. In the past with consumers having much more discretionary income a family might have booked a smaller home and gone it alone. On the luxury side it appears that that discretionary cash has dried up at an alarming rate. Some of the largest rate cuts are occurring on the luxury end of the vacation rental market. The upside of all this doom and gloom is that consumers are out there looking for deals and if they can negotiate with the manager or homeowner they will still take that vacation. Be aggressive!
3) The Ugly: It’s The Economy Stupid (With Apologies to Bill Clinton)
Ok. It is UGLY out there and there is absolutely no need to rehash all of that ad nausea. What to do? As professional vacation rental property managers we have identified a number of courses taken individually or as a package to combat the economic attacks:
A) Price Competitiveness-Be aware of your competition and beat them to the punch
B) Be Negotiable-Plan to offer a 10-30% discount and set your rack rate accordingly
C) Staging: The property should show ABSOLUTELY it’s best face-stage the home as if your were selling it and make sure the photos are professional and unless you are a professional photographer leave it to the pros. Make sure you include a virtual tour and an easy to access web-based LINK to your photo albums.
D) Video Submission: Make a video either with stills or HD video-submit it for free to You Tube and Google Video. Unless you want a grainy look use medium to high resolution for your still photos and if using video make sure you use a high resolution and preferably a HD video camera.
E) Seatch Engine Optimization-SEO:Learn how to properly optimize for search engines all photos, websites and blog entries/posts. This will be left for another article.
F) BLOG,BLOG,BLOG: Again, this will be left for another discussion
Bottom line: Don’t assume what has worked in the past will work today today. Think as if you are the prospective guest and put yourself in their shoes.
Happy Trails
September Housing Sales Up 5.5%
September existing home sales rise by 5.5 percent largest in more than 5 years
Sales of existing homes rose by the largest amount in more than five years in September, a real estate trade group said Friday. The data is a possible glimmer of hope that the housing slump could be starting to bottom out.
The National Association of Realtors said Friday that sales of existing homes rose by 5.5 percent in September compared to August, the best showing since a 5.6 percent increase in July 2003, during the five-year housing boom.
Even with the gain in sales, prices kept falling. The median sales price has dropped to $191,600, down by 9 percent from a year ago.
Inventories of unsold existing homes dropped by 1.6 percent in September to 4.27 million units which would be a 9.9 months supply at the September sales pace, still a historically high level.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said a sales turnaround first seen in California was beginning to broaden to other regions of the country including Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri and Rhode Island.
He said housing may be starting to find a bottom but the turnaround could be aborted by the near-certainty that the country has fallen into a recession. For that reason, he said it was important for Congress to pass a second stimulus package including measures that would bolster the housing market.
In a further effort to bolster the housing market and deal with record high levels of mortgage defaults, Shelia Bair, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., is pushing Treasury to include in the $700 billion rescue package for the financial system a new program to prevent more mortgage foreclosures.
Under Bair’s proposal, the government would provide guarantees for mortgages that have been reworked by banks to lower the payment schedules to more affordable levels.
The rise in September sales pushed activity to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million units last month. Sales were up 9.6 percent on a year-over-year basis before adjusting for seasonal changes.
By region of the country, sales soared by 16.8 percent in the West and rose a more moderate 4.4 percent in the Midwest and 2.2 percent in the South. The only region of the country which saw a decline was the Northeast, where sales fell by 1.1 percent.
Housing has been suffering through its worst downturn in decades following a five-year boom that ended in 2006. Since that time sales and prices have plummeted.
Builders have responded to the huge glut of unsold homes by sharply cutting back on construction as their confidence levels have fallen to record lows. The National Association of Home Builders is projecting that construction of new homes and apartments will total just 936,000 units for this year, which would be the weakest performance since 1945.