Lake Tahoe Weather Discussion-11/25/08
Where did that storm go? Lake Tahoe was waiting for the first significant storm of the season and it seems to have disappeared into thin air. Southern California may see some rain and possibly snow as far north as Mammoth but even then it looks spotty. After Thansgiving the computer models are showing a drying trend with high pressure once again settling in to block any kind of a stormy pattern from developing. I have been looking at the newest computer models and there is quite a bit of divergence between models in the long range…the GFS showing a possible breaking down of the high pressure ridge around the 3-6 of December while the European model holds the ridge in place. My thinking is that we may have some unsettled weather late next week. Take a close look at December 6-10….maybe we will catch a break!
Lake Tahoe Weather Discussion-11/24/08
6:00AM 11/24/08
It appears we are heading into a somewhat unsettled pattern with some snow and rain developing over the Thanksgiving holiday and the following weekend….
Update 5:25PM 11/24/08
Now the latest computer models indicate that we may get a bit of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and then it looks like it will be drying up…again. The (if you love snow and winter weather) dastardly “REX BLOCK” will be setting up over the weekend steering all favorable winter weather away from the Sierras and in to the far Northwest and British Columbia. This is a pattern that we do not want to see as it could easily block a stormy pattern for weeks. One bright spot is that this pattern can set up a very cold situation which would allow our local resorts to make snow is mass quantities. Also, when the jet stream buckles northward to the extent that the models are showing there is always the potential for a “back door slider” which is another term for a low pressure system cutting off and sitting over the great basin and also know as a “Tonopah Low” This can be beneficial for Lake Tahoe even though we are not anywhere close the main jet stream storm escalator. I have witnessed huge “dry” dumps of snow form these events but don’t get your snow dreams up yet…we need to get lucky. As a professional vacation rental property manager and a serious Lake Tahoe “local”with over 28 winters of weather watching this is the setup based on my feeble minded hunches:
November 29-December 6 Dry and seasonal
December 7-17-Unseasonably cold and dry
December 18-26-Becoming Unsettled with some snow
December 27-January 4-Very unsettled with a copious amount of precipitation.
We shall see……
Lake Tahoe Weather
