Lake Tahoe Weather 12-2-08 Bad News Again
The models have changed again and not in our favor if you want snow in the Lake Tahoe basin. It now appears that a massive high pressure ridge will be in place for at least the next week with no significant storms in sight. I have decided to write this entry with a total lack of optimism in the hopes that will change things back to a wet pattern! Ok, Ok I am superstitious but of that is what it takes to get some snow into the Lake Tahoe area so be it!
We should take all of this in stride however if last winter was any indication. Remember that we had no storms until the third week of December and even that was not a large storm. But, just after New Years we got whalloped with 6-9 feet of snow. That set us up for the rest of the winter which was stormy through February and then the storm door shut down again for March.
Many winters in the Sierra don’t really start until January so it is not too late to have a banner ski and snowboarding year.
Dana
Screenshot of December 17 GFS Model
Lake Tahoe Weather 12/01/08-Pattern Change?
Even though it appears to be a relatively tranquil week ahead
changes may be brewing….finally. Long range models for Lake Tahoe
show a strong Pacific jet possibly taking aim at the Lake Tahoe Basin
beginning early next week. This is still a long way off but it has been
consistent now on (3) consecutive model runs. This is something we have
not seen in a long time with the models and their inconsistency this
fall. At the very least it appears that we are in for a decent
cool-down later this week along with some 30-40 knot winds late Tuesday which
should help mix down the atmosphere and with the cooler temperatures
mixing into the higher elevations snow-making at Lake Tahoe resorts
should get into gear. But…today may hold record setting warmth!
For those of you who are still on the fence and have not reserved your Lake Tahoe vacation rental cabin, condo or home
now is the time to make that call. The second those “cub” reporters
from the Bay Area or Sacramento start showing the snow at Lake Tahoe it
may too late to reserve that perfect Lake Tahoe vacation rental.
Burn those old skis and snowboards!
Dana
Lake Tahoe Weather-OH NO! The models have changed again!
Here we go again. Just when it appeared we may be heading into a wet and snowy pattern the GFS long range models have changed dramatically and not for the better if you want snow at Lake Tahoe.
Early in the weekend it looked like we might see a pattern change and get a more zonal flow off the Pacific to bring us some significant precipitation after about December 6 but now the operational models are showing another blocking pattern with a REX block high pressure type setup which may steer all storms to the far north again. Later in the 15 day long range models there is some indication that a major buckle in the jet stream will funnel very cold arctic air into the region so we may yet squeeze some moisture out of that but right now it does not appear that any major snowstorms for Lake Tahoe are on the horizon. Stay tuned.
Dana
Here is the GFS long range snapshot for day 11:
Lake Tahoe Weather Discussion-11/28/08
Happy Black Friday! If any of you have been out at 4:00 AM shopping this morning you probably noticed that a coat was definite a must! Over night the skies cleared and the temperatures dropped considerably. This is great news for the Lake Tahoe Ski resorts as it will finally allow some snow-making to be performed and coupled with the snow dumped by the last southernn oriented low it has allowed Heavenly Mountain Resort to open today!
Looking down the road the picture is muddled but the idea that a huge blocking high (REX Block) placing itself for weeks seems to have been overplayed and the current high pressure ridge may flatten and allow some precipitation into the Lake Tahoe area sometime next week.
Peering even further down the road days 8-14 (December 6-12) look wet with a powerful Pacific jet stream possibly sending wet and stormy weather towards the Lake Tahoe Basin and maybe bringing with it the copious amounts of snow we need to really get the winter ski/board season jump-started! This prognostication is a long way out but it does warrant a look. Once again, burn those old skis and snowboards to appease the ski gods!
Dana
Lake Tahoe Weather Discussion-11/25/08
Where did that storm go? Lake Tahoe was waiting for the first significant storm of the season and it seems to have disappeared into thin air. Southern California may see some rain and possibly snow as far north as Mammoth but even then it looks spotty. After Thansgiving the computer models are showing a drying trend with high pressure once again settling in to block any kind of a stormy pattern from developing. I have been looking at the newest computer models and there is quite a bit of divergence between models in the long range…the GFS showing a possible breaking down of the high pressure ridge around the 3-6 of December while the European model holds the ridge in place. My thinking is that we may have some unsettled weather late next week. Take a close look at December 6-10….maybe we will catch a break!
