Lake Tahoe Weather-OH NO! The models have changed again!
Here we go again. Just when it appeared we may be heading into a wet and snowy pattern the GFS long range models have changed dramatically and not for the better if you want snow at Lake Tahoe.
Early in the weekend it looked like we might see a pattern change and get a more zonal flow off the Pacific to bring us some significant precipitation after about December 6 but now the operational models are showing another blocking pattern with a REX block high pressure type setup which may steer all storms to the far north again. Later in the 15 day long range models there is some indication that a major buckle in the jet stream will funnel very cold arctic air into the region so we may yet squeeze some moisture out of that but right now it does not appear that any major snowstorms for Lake Tahoe are on the horizon. Stay tuned.
Dana
Here is the GFS long range snapshot for day 11:
Lake Tahoe Weather Discussion-11/28/08
Happy Black Friday! If any of you have been out at 4:00 AM shopping this morning you probably noticed that a coat was definite a must! Over night the skies cleared and the temperatures dropped considerably. This is great news for the Lake Tahoe Ski resorts as it will finally allow some snow-making to be performed and coupled with the snow dumped by the last southernn oriented low it has allowed Heavenly Mountain Resort to open today!
Looking down the road the picture is muddled but the idea that a huge blocking high (REX Block) placing itself for weeks seems to have been overplayed and the current high pressure ridge may flatten and allow some precipitation into the Lake Tahoe area sometime next week.
Peering even further down the road days 8-14 (December 6-12) look wet with a powerful Pacific jet stream possibly sending wet and stormy weather towards the Lake Tahoe Basin and maybe bringing with it the copious amounts of snow we need to really get the winter ski/board season jump-started! This prognostication is a long way out but it does warrant a look. Once again, burn those old skis and snowboards to appease the ski gods!
Dana
Lake Tahoe Weather Discussion-11/25/08
Where did that storm go? Lake Tahoe was waiting for the first significant storm of the season and it seems to have disappeared into thin air. Southern California may see some rain and possibly snow as far north as Mammoth but even then it looks spotty. After Thansgiving the computer models are showing a drying trend with high pressure once again settling in to block any kind of a stormy pattern from developing. I have been looking at the newest computer models and there is quite a bit of divergence between models in the long range…the GFS showing a possible breaking down of the high pressure ridge around the 3-6 of December while the European model holds the ridge in place. My thinking is that we may have some unsettled weather late next week. Take a close look at December 6-10….maybe we will catch a break!
Lake Tahoe Weather Discussion-11/24/08
6:00AM 11/24/08
It appears we are heading into a somewhat unsettled pattern with some snow and rain developing over the Thanksgiving holiday and the following weekend….
Update 5:25PM 11/24/08
Now the latest computer models indicate that we may get a bit of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and then it looks like it will be drying up…again. The (if you love snow and winter weather) dastardly “REX BLOCK” will be setting up over the weekend steering all favorable winter weather away from the Sierras and in to the far Northwest and British Columbia. This is a pattern that we do not want to see as it could easily block a stormy pattern for weeks. One bright spot is that this pattern can set up a very cold situation which would allow our local resorts to make snow is mass quantities. Also, when the jet stream buckles northward to the extent that the models are showing there is always the potential for a “back door slider” which is another term for a low pressure system cutting off and sitting over the great basin and also know as a “Tonopah Low” This can be beneficial for Lake Tahoe even though we are not anywhere close the main jet stream storm escalator. I have witnessed huge “dry” dumps of snow form these events but don’t get your snow dreams up yet…we need to get lucky. As a professional vacation rental property manager and a serious Lake Tahoe “local”with over 28 winters of weather watching this is the setup based on my feeble minded hunches:
November 29-December 6 Dry and seasonal
December 7-17-Unseasonably cold and dry
December 18-26-Becoming Unsettled with some snow
December 27-January 4-Very unsettled with a copious amount of precipitation.
We shall see……