Lake Tahoe Weather Forecast-Getting Cold!
Lake Tahoe Weather-Short Term
Quiet weather will continue through Thursday before a pattern change
takes place. High pressure will remain along the California coast through
Wednesday. A decent pressure gradient along the Sierra this morning
has produced ridge gusts up to 70 miles per hour over the Sierra in the Tahoe
basin and above 90 miles per hour in Mono County. These winds will decrease
during the morning…will still gust up to 50 miles per hour between sunrise
and midday before dropping off. Northeast surface winds over Lake
Tahoe will be 15-18 miles per hour with gusts 25-30 miles per hour early this morning
before diminishing after sunrise.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler in some valley areas of western Nevada
as strong inversions set up once again. Warm air aloft increases
today which will allow higher elevations to warm several degrees
from yesterday. High temperatures in western Nevada valleys will remain in
the middle 40s today…while highs in the Sierra will range from the
middle 40s to around 50.
A weak short wave will brush northern and eastern Nevada on Thursday which will
bring some cooling to northern areas of the County Warning Area as the ridge retrogrades
into the Pacific. Otherwise no significant weather is expected with
this feature. Gmcguire
Lake Tahoe Weather Long Term
Made a few adjustments to the forecast as timing confidence grows
for initial storm late this week. Really no big changes in the 00z
model solutions. Model agreement increasing along with decreasing
spread in the ensemble data fro Friday and Saturday. Ensemble spread
remains high for Sunday and into early next week where the forecast
is less confident.
GFS/European model (ecmwf) bring the front into the northern areas late Friday/early
Saturday and drive it into the southern areas Saturday afternoon.
Surface thermal and pressure gradients increase rapidly Friday
afternoon and Friday night ahead of the front. With highs forecast
to drop 20-30 degrees between Friday and Sunday…little doubt there
will be a good to significant wind event as the cold front blasts
across the area. 700 mb winds at 55-65 kts…with GFS soundings and
cross sections showing a favorable thermal profile that can produce
strong gusts along the Sierra front. Significantly increased wind
speeds to near Wind Advisory criteria /gusts 45 miles per hour/ for Friday
night…which may be on the low side for some locations.
On Saturday best chance for rain with an abrupt change to snow will
be along the front. Behind the front…cold moist and unstable air
will be in place so at least snow showers will remain possible into
early next week.
For Sunday and Monday…much uncertainty here as models have
different ideas on how additional moisture and energy will reach the
area. What seems certain at this time is temperatures will remain
below normal with possibility of a second system affecting the area.
00z GFS solution moves energy south along the Oregon and Washington
coasts. This would allow the system to direct Pacific moisture into
the Sierra and western Nevada Sunday through Tuesday. Certainly a
favorable pattern for significant snow accumulations.
The 00z European model (ecmwf) keeps the low onshore and thus has lower amounts of
moisture for Sunday and Monday. However…still enough to produce a
chance of snow all areas with the cold temperatures. So increased
snow chances to at least 30 percent all areas for Sunday and
Monday. The European model (ecmwf) flattens the flow Tuesday…but pushes the jet
directly over the Sierra…which also leans toward being favorable
for accumulating snow if it verifies.
Book your Lake Tahoe Vacation Rental Cabin, home or condo now!
Lake Tahoe Weather 12/08/08-Storm a Comin!!
Statement as of 3:10 PM PST on December 08, 2008
… Weather pattern change expected by this weekend…
A very cold North Pacific storm system is expected to push into
the region by this weekend… bringing an abrupt change to the mild
and dry weather we have been seeing since the Thanksgiving Holiday.
This cold system will bring strong winds to the area Friday and
Saturday. A significant cold front will sweep through our area
early Saturday morning. Temperatures are expected to plummet this
weekend with highs on Saturday and Sunday only in the 30s across
most of the lower valleys… highs in the teens and 20s in the
Sierra. Snow levels are expected to drop to all valley
floors… but the amount of moisture with this system remains
uncertain.
If you have travel plans for the weekend in the Sierra and western
Nevada… be prepared for winter driving conditions. Check our
website at www.Weather.Gov/Reno for updates on how these storms
may impact weekend travel.
Major Weather Pattern Change?
It looks like we may actually have a pattern change to wet weather starting a week from Sunday. Read Accuweather blog from Ken Clark
Lake Tahoe Weather 12-2-08 Bad News Again
The models have changed again and not in our favor if you want snow in the Lake Tahoe basin. It now appears that a massive high pressure ridge will be in place for at least the next week with no significant storms in sight. I have decided to write this entry with a total lack of optimism in the hopes that will change things back to a wet pattern! Ok, Ok I am superstitious but of that is what it takes to get some snow into the Lake Tahoe area so be it!
We should take all of this in stride however if last winter was any indication. Remember that we had no storms until the third week of December and even that was not a large storm. But, just after New Years we got whalloped with 6-9 feet of snow. That set us up for the rest of the winter which was stormy through February and then the storm door shut down again for March.
Many winters in the Sierra don’t really start until January so it is not too late to have a banner ski and snowboarding year.
Dana
Screenshot of December 17 GFS Model
Lake Tahoe Weather 12/01/08-Pattern Change?
Even though it appears to be a relatively tranquil week ahead
changes may be brewing….finally. Long range models for Lake Tahoe
show a strong Pacific jet possibly taking aim at the Lake Tahoe Basin
beginning early next week. This is still a long way off but it has been
consistent now on (3) consecutive model runs. This is something we have
not seen in a long time with the models and their inconsistency this
fall. At the very least it appears that we are in for a decent
cool-down later this week along with some 30-40 knot winds late Tuesday which
should help mix down the atmosphere and with the cooler temperatures
mixing into the higher elevations snow-making at Lake Tahoe resorts
should get into gear. But…today may hold record setting warmth!
For those of you who are still on the fence and have not reserved your Lake Tahoe vacation rental cabin, condo or home
now is the time to make that call. The second those “cub” reporters
from the Bay Area or Sacramento start showing the snow at Lake Tahoe it
may too late to reserve that perfect Lake Tahoe vacation rental.
Burn those old skis and snowboards!
Dana
