The view of the Lake Tahoe Basin from Echo Lakes

I know it is only September 27 but looking ahead with the aid of NOAA it appears there will be a major pattern change starting next week and lasting for a couple of weeks. The Pacific is starting to get active and the MJO which can bring storminess to the west coast is starting to juice up. That being said our first Lake Tahoe rain/snow events may begin sooner than later! Stay tuned.

Scientific Forecast Discussion 9/27/2011

Related articles

• Another La Nina for 2012? (laketahoegetaways.com)
• Indian Ocean study key to understanding global weather (summitcountyvoice.com)
• Scientists probe Indian Ocean for clues to worldwide weather patterns (eurekalert.org)

Image via Wikipedia

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

During July 2011, ENSO-neutral was reflected in the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the latest weekly Niño index values were generally near average (Fig. 2), ranging from –0.2^oC (Niño-3.4) to 0.5^oC (Niño-1+2). However, the subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to weaken and is currently near zero, which reflects the strengthening of the below-average temperatures at depth in the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation anomalies were more variable during the past month, but the monthly means still reflect aspects of La Niña. For example, convection continued to be enhanced over eastern Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and generally suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific, mainly south of the equator (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific. Thus, while tropical Pacific oceanic anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral, the atmospheric patterns continue to reflect La Niña-like conditions.

The majority of ENSO models, and all multi-model average forecasts (indicated by thicker lines, Fig. 6), indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Niño-3.4 index between –0.5^oC and +0.5^oC). Beyond the early fall, the forecasts are less certain with half of the models persisting ENSO-neutral conditions continuously through early 2012. Along with a few other models, the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) models predict La Niña to re-develop during the fall (Fig. 7). This forecast is also supported by the ongoing La Niña-like tropical atmosphere, subsurface temperature trends, and the historical tendency for significant wintertime La Niña episodes to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes the following winter. Therefore, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 September 2011. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

What does this mean for Lake Tahoe and the upcoming Fall/Winter? Who really knows as La Nina winters can go either way from very wet to very dry…Lake Tahoe basically sits in the middle of the weather war.

Ten Feet in Tahoe from William Mauney on Vimeo.

Well things have started to get interesting early this fall with a few autumn-like systems affecting Lake tahoe since late August. Currently we are under our first advisory for snow which may bring as much as 8 inches to elevations above 8,000 fet and some as low as 6,500 feet when all is said and done. After that it looks like we will get a   warm up but the Pacific has become very active for this time of year and after looking at the La Nina signals it appears we will have a strong to very strong La Nina winter which may herald a cold and possibly wet 2010-2011 winter…stay tuned.

Here is the advsory from the National Weather Service

Winter weather advisory in effect until 11 am pdt Tuesday above 8000 feet,
The NWS in Reno has issued a winter weather advisory above 8000 feet for snow, which is in effect until 11 am pdt Tuesday.
Timing: High elevation snow will increase tonight as low pressure moves over the central sierra, especially areas south of highway 50. Periods of snow are likely to continue in the high sierra through Wednesday.
Snow accumulations: 4 to 8 inches of snow above 8000 feet through Tuesday morning.
Snow levels: Snow levels will fall near 8000 feet tonight.
Impacts: Snow will impact travel over mount rose highway, Carson pass, Ebbett’s pass, and Luther pass.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
Snow is expected to pose an inconvenience to travelers. Motorists should slow down and use caution. Check our website at weather.gov/reno or listen to noaa weather radio for updates on this situation.

Related articles by Zemanta

• 8,598 Lightning Strikes Throughout California, 407 on the Tahoe National Forest (yubanet.com)
• October Speaker Series with the Tahoe Rim Trail Association (yubanet.com)

Lake Tahoe is having a banner snow year and the conditions for all Lake Tahoe resorts could hardly be better. It is obvious why Orbitz declared once again that the Lake Tahoe region is the top destination for their travelers booking air and lodging packages.  Lodging numbers are up and skier visits have risen quite dramatically as well. The timing of the stormy patters has also helped with periods of stromy weather and then long breaks of Tahoe’s famous sunshine.

Looking ahead there appears to be even more snow on the way with another El Nino driven jet stream making it’s way across the Pacific. These storms may not be as intense as the storms earlier this month but they do appear to be pretty juicy! Stay tuned.

If you are looking for lodging on the South Shore of Lake Tahoe Pinnacle Lake Tahoe Getaways offers over 68 vacation rental homes, cabins and condos ranging from super-luxury to basic economy-2-7 bedrooms with sleeping arrangements ranging from 4 -18 guests. All units are fully equipped for your stay with all linens provided, a start pack of paper products, soaps and shampoos, nicely equipped kitchens and many featuring other amenities such as Hot Tubs, steam showers, Internet and pool tables. Many of Pinnacle Lake Tahoe Getaway’s unit are pet friendly as well so bring Fido along.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Lake Tahoe Area Traveler’s Stats Revealed by Online Lodging and Vacation Rentals Directory Rentalo.com (prweb.com)
• News about Lake Tahoe Finally Available Every Day (prweb.com)
• Storm brings blizzard conditions to Sierra (sfgate.com)
• Skiing/Snowboarding Trip at Lake Tahoe (dosooye.com)

Howdy!

I have been very lax about updating the Lake Tahoe weather post but now that we are deep into Autumn and everyone in town is looking up and waiting for those snowflakes to fall I decided I better get back on that horse!

What appeared to be an early Lake Tahoe winter developing in October with record precipitation and some very strong storms has turned into a very warm and dry Indian Summer pattern. Looking down the road it appears the pattern is changing into a somewhat more favorable scenario to get some storms into the Tahoe basin. But it also looks like we might only get brush by precipitation which is not what we need but a major snowstrom or two. Receiving a good storm before Thanksgiving allows the major snow resorts to get up and running and gives a huge boost to the local economies.

I have been down this early season “where is the snow?” road before so I can say with confidence that is way, way too early to freak out yet but some snow dances and pray for snow parties are not a bad idea at this point either.

The long range models still indicate an above average year for snow and that El Nino is still there and developing, Looking at other El Nino years keep in mind that many of those years were very wet and a bulk of the precipitation came later in the year and not earlier. I still think that January, February and March will be very wet if not epic so hang in there Lake Tahoe. It will snow.

UPDATE: Looking at the long range Lake Tahoe weather models it appears there may be a big change which may bring some serious storms into Lake Tahoe and the High Sierra during the November 15-24 period. This is a long way out but it does look better and some of the commercial long range weather companies are pointing to this wetter period as well.

Stay Tuned!

(Burn some ski’s and Boards)

Related articles by Zemanta

• Storm Dumps Snow on Mammoth Mountain, Will Ski Season Open Early? (laist.com)

My predictions will center on the fact that strong El Nino’s typically bring our precipitation late i.e February through April and that weal El Nino events typically give our winter an early start that then fizzles later in the spring. I think that (with 5 inches of snow on my back deck as I write this) that the winter will be early with good hard storms hitting the Sierra by the middle of November allowing the major Ski and Board resorts to get up and running full tilt by Thanksgiving. The weather should be wet through the Holidays and into late January with major storms battering the Lake Tahoe region until early February. After that all bets are off and I think it will be a warm and dry late winter and early spring. Hope not but that is my thinking.

Here is a list of the biggest Sierra winters and the correlation between El Nino events:

El Niño Winter

2006-2007 / 365 inches
2004-2005 / 562 inches
2002-2003 / 375 inches
1997-1998 / 531 inches
1994 / 661 inches
1993 / 500 inches
1991-1992 / 205 inches
1986-1987 / 212 inches
1982-1983 / 600 inches

Non-El Niño Winter

2008-2009 / 480 inches
2007-2008 / 420 inches
2005-2006 / 650 inches
1995-1996 / 420 inches
1988-1989 / 400 inches

Below is a simple example of the difference between El Nino winter and La Nina winters.

Please read my North Lake Tahoe weather watchers article on his ideas on the similarities of this upcoming winter an the winter of 1951-52

Here is another article on the upcoming winter and predictions

Both of these article argue for an above normal winter with one writer comparing the weak El Nino and some other factors that mirror the epic winter of 1951-52 where all single level and many two stroy homes were literally buried at Lake Tahoe! Maybe that would be too much of a good thing.

Stay Tuned!

Related articles by Zemanta

• El Nino’s Return — Climatologists, Oceanographers Track Climate-changing Ocean Pattern (fusionsci-tech.blogspot.com)
• Connections among solar cycle, stratosphere and ocean discovered (scienceblog.com)
• Sun stays as summer goes (theolympian.com)
• El Nino weather system to return (telegraph.co.uk)
• El Nino Returns (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
• Should you take a chance on a season ski pass this winter? (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
• Weather Service expects drier Northwest winter (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

The City of San Francisco Stranded at Donner Summit-Winter 1952

The squirrels have gone absolutely crazy eating and actually cutting pine cones from the trees in preparation for a HUGE South Lake Tahoe  winter? Only time will tell but there are actual scientific indications for a big winter namely our old friend “El Nino” The El Nino is expected to strengthen later this fall and become a full fledged El Nino by mid winter.

El Nino does not always foretell a big winter but in a majority of cases winter of note are associated with an El Nino event.

Noteable El Nino winter from the past have been 1982-83; 1968-69; 2004-05; 1997-98. It is worth noting that the BIG winter of 1951-52 was not an strong El Nino but there have been some comparisons to that epic winter and how this El Nino is beginning and is forecast to locate itself. Maybe I need to bring in more firewood and get the hurricane lamps ready!

I have been trying to do further historic research an winter such as 1846-47 which of course was the winter the Donner Party was trapped in the Sierra’s and endured incredible hardships. That winter the snow was estimated at Donner lake to be over 22 feet deep! The estimates at Donner Summit were over 40 feet! Was that an El Nino year? I am checking.

Here are some recent articles relating to the upcoming El Nino event:

• El Nino could forecast disaster for Olympics (canada.com)
• El Nino’s back, can affect weather worldwide: experts (ctv.ca)
• New El Nino increases drought threat (telegraph.co.uk)
• El Nino should bring mild winter: expert (nationalpost.com)
• Should you take a chance on a season ski pass this winter? (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
• Why Does the Tale of the Donner Party Continue to Fascinate? (francesdinkelspiel.blogspot.com)
• The Donner party in proper context (boston.com)

The recent moist and unstable pattern over western Nevada has
produced one of the wettest Junes on record in Reno. Another
series of showers brought rain to the Reno Airport Saturday
pushing the monthly total further up the list of wettest Junes on
record. The next good chance for rainfall in Reno will be Monday
night and Tuesday.

Below is a list of the top ten wettest Junes for Reno.

1920 1.94
1989 1.53
2009 1.45  total as June 14th
1932 1.40
1998 1.39
1938 1.31
1965 1.31
1969 1.29
1995 1.29
1892 1.27

Since May 30th the Reno Airport has received 1.83 inches of rain.

If you look close at those years many of them were huge snow total years especially 1969, 1995, 1998

South Lake Tahoe Thunderstorm Development

This has been an amazing week for weather at South Lake Tahoe! As a 30 year local of the Tahoe basin this may be the longest period of Thunderstorm activity that I can remember. This kind of activity usually occurs later in the summer during the southwerst’s Monsoon season and even then the Lake Tahoe region rarely sees days let alone weeks of thunderstrom acitvity. That being said the upside to all of thie moisture are numerous”

1) The fire season has been postponed even with all of the lightning-too wet as of now
2) The spring runoff has been enhanced by the extra precipitation
3) Fabulous gardening season will follow
4) The wildflowers in the high country will be outrageous and could start early and last very late
5) I like the rain….speaking as an Oregon Duck alumnus!

Local Storm Report
Current Lake Tahoe Forecast