Lake Tahoe Weather Forecast-Getting Cold!

Lake Tahoe Weather Forecast-Getting Cold!



Lake Tahoe Weather-Short Term

Quiet weather will continue through Thursday before a pattern change
takes place. High pressure will remain along the California coast through
Wednesday. A decent pressure gradient along the Sierra this morning
has produced ridge gusts up to 70 miles per hour over the Sierra in the Tahoe
basin and above 90 miles per hour in Mono County. These winds will decrease
during the morning…will still gust up to 50 miles per hour between sunrise
and midday before dropping off. Northeast surface winds over Lake
Tahoe will be 15-18 miles per hour with gusts 25-30 miles per hour early this morning
before diminishing after sunrise.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler in some valley areas of western Nevada
as strong inversions set up once again. Warm air aloft increases
today which will allow higher elevations to warm several degrees
from yesterday. High temperatures in western Nevada valleys will remain in
the middle 40s today…while highs in the Sierra will range from the
middle 40s to around 50.

A weak short wave will brush northern and eastern Nevada on Thursday which will
bring some cooling to northern areas of the County Warning Area as the ridge retrogrades
into the Pacific. Otherwise no significant weather is expected with
this feature. Gmcguire

Lake Tahoe Weather Long Term

Made a few adjustments to the forecast as timing confidence grows
for initial storm late this week. Really no big changes in the 00z
model solutions. Model agreement increasing along with decreasing
spread in the ensemble data fro Friday and Saturday. Ensemble spread
remains high for Sunday and into early next week where the forecast
is less confident.

GFS/European model (ecmwf) bring the front into the northern areas late Friday/early
Saturday and drive it into the southern areas Saturday afternoon.
Surface thermal and pressure gradients increase rapidly Friday
afternoon and Friday night ahead of the front. With highs forecast
to drop 20-30 degrees between Friday and Sunday…little doubt there
will be a good to significant wind event as the cold front blasts
across the area. 700 mb winds at 55-65 kts…with GFS soundings and
cross sections showing a favorable thermal profile that can produce
strong gusts along the Sierra front. Significantly increased wind
speeds to near Wind Advisory criteria /gusts 45 miles per hour/ for Friday
night…which may be on the low side for some locations.

On Saturday best chance for rain with an abrupt change to snow will
be along the front. Behind the front…cold moist and unstable air
will be in place so at least snow showers will remain possible into
early next week.

For Sunday and Monday…much uncertainty here as models have
different ideas on how additional moisture and energy will reach the
area. What seems certain at this time is temperatures will remain
below normal with possibility of a second system affecting the area.

00z GFS solution moves energy south along the Oregon and Washington
coasts. This would allow the system to direct Pacific moisture into
the Sierra and western Nevada Sunday through Tuesday. Certainly a
favorable pattern for significant snow accumulations.

The 00z European model (ecmwf) keeps the low onshore and thus has lower amounts of
moisture for Sunday and Monday. However…still enough to produce a
chance of snow all areas with the cold temperatures. So increased
snow chances to at least 30 percent all areas for Sunday and
Monday. The European model (ecmwf) flattens the flow Tuesday…but pushes the jet
directly over the Sierra…which also leans toward being favorable
for accumulating snow if it verifies.

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